The bans landed: three bets for the rest of October

The bans landed: three bets for the rest of October

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Monday brought two banlist announcements. One Piece lost a leader, Magic changed almost nothing on purpose, and Pokémon is one week out from its biggest set of the fall. Here are three bets I am making for the rest of October. All opinion, all grounded in real results. None of it is financial advice.

Bet one: green finds a new face (One Piece)

OP14-020 Dracule Mihawk is banned, effective October 12. Bandai announced it September 24, and the reasoning was usage and win rate: Mihawk won the London Regionals on October 3 and 4, a 1,024-player event (Bandai's stream), and kept showing up at the top tables with Shanks and Vander Decken IX doing the heavy lifting. (OnePieceDB, official notice)

My bet: the green shells do not die, they migrate. Shanks and Vander Decken are the engine; the leader was the outfit. Watch for green's best support cards to move first as players rebuild, and watch the budget end of the room: the Rocks D. Xebec deck that took first and second at ChinoizeCup 119 on October 6, listed around $100, just became the cheapest proven deck in the format. (optcg.gg)

The first real test is the Monterrey Regionals on October 24. If green shows up with a new leader on top, you will wish you bought the support cards now. Our Friday 7pm is the lab. And if you just want a Mihawk for the binder, we have Dracule Mihawk singles in the case from $0.08 →.

Bet two: no changes is the change (Magic)

Monday's Magic B&R: Standard, Pioneer, Modern, Legacy, Vintage, and Pauper all untouched. The only changes hit Competitive Brawl: Yuriko, Spider-Man 2099, and Light-Paws banned as commander, nine cards unbanned except as commander, and the digital-only Nashi rebalanced to lose flash. Play designer Carmen Klomparens said the team is broadly happy with the horizon and wants stability and predictability. (official announcement)

My bet: "no changes" is a green light, exactly like I said last week. Reality Fracture week-one data from Wizards' own Metagame Mentor (250-plus decks, September 29 to October 5): Izzet Spellementals led at 9.0% but is declining, Orzhov Life Gain sits at 8.3% and climbing, Boros Dragons at 7.2% and climbing. (magic.gg, Draftsim)

The Magic Spotlight Series: Fracture hits Hartford October 23 to 25, the first premier Standard event after the announcement. My money is on Boros Dragons showing up heavier than its week-one share, and Clarion Conqueror is the card I would be watching.

Bet three: the dragon walks into a Dragapult world (Pokémon)

Delta Reign prereleases start October 24, and Mega Rayquaza ex walks into the most solved Standard meta of the year. At Louisville last weekend, 2,927 players, reigning world champion Riley McKay won the whole thing with Dragapult ex: 15 wins and 3 draws, no losses. Dragapult was 34 percent of Day 2 and half the Top 8. (PTCG News, TCGJoin)

My bet: nothing previewed from Delta Reign obviously answers Dragapult, and Rayquaza has never needed a fair meta to be the chase. The Japanese Mega Rayquaza ex peaked around $2,166 on TCGplayer before settling near $946. English launch-week prices will run hot. So Dragapult ex singles are my safest competitive hold right now, and I am not touching Rayquaza chase singles until the launch hype fades. If you want the dragon on your shelf meanwhile, we have Rayquaza singles in the case from $0.32 →. (Undercode, Bills Archive)

Three bets, three weekends: Monterrey, Hartford, and the Delta Reign prerelease. I will own it if I am wrong. See you at the tables.

Cover image: Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution Delta Reign key art featuring Mega Rayquaza ex. Image: Siliconera / The Pokémon Company International